Book Excerpt: Russia and the Changing Character of Conflict
Russia and the Changing Character of Conflict by Tracey German delves into Russian perspectives on the evolving nature of conflict, particularly since 2014, when debates on hybrid warfare and the “new way of war” emerged. It challenges Western assumptions by exploring Russian military thought through original sources, including military journals and policy documents. By examining these insights, the book illuminates the unique processes shaping Russia’s views on future wars, offering a crucial understanding of how peer competitors assess and adapt to the changing character of conflict.
EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK:
Since the early 1990s, when people living in Taiwan achieved the right to freely vote for their executive and legislature, there has been a tidal change in how they view themselves and where they live. According to this view, “Taiwan” is not part of a wider, cross-strait Chinese nation, but a nation centered on the island of Taiwan itself. The outcome of democratization has been nothing less than revolutionary, producing a new, de facto nation and people that can be justly called “Taiwanese.”
The imperatives of great power politics in the era of increasing US-China rivalry mean that this revolution remains unacknowledged globally. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) claims sovereignty over Taiwan and insists that “reunification” is the historic mission of all peoples on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Modern Chinese nationalism is premised in large part on the subjugation of Taiwan and its people. The PRC threatens war with and over the island, inviting a crisis that would engulf the region and beyond. Any glib judgement that the “Taiwan problem” would slip from view with “reunification” and the “rise of China” has never been less convincing.
But this Taiwan nation exists out of time. It hangs in a permanent present, the so-called “status quo,” neither recognized by the international community as a fully sovereign nation nor treated by it as “part of China” the way that Chinese provinces and special administrative regions are. Yet this present could branch at any moment into radically different futures of devastating regional conflict or democratic survival and continued economic development.
Thus, Taiwan remains inaccurately recognized and poorly understood, just at the moment when Taiwanese themselves are coming into a clearer sense of their identities and accomplishments. The most common frameworks in international discourse about Taiwan—that it “split with China in 1949” or “sees itself as the true China”—fail to explain anything at all about why Taiwanese have withstood consistent pressure from the PRC to give up their democratic self-governance and their hopes for diplomatic normalization.
Each chapter of this book provides a new framework that illuminates this interstitial state and explains why democratization in Taiwan constituted a revolution, changing not just the form of government over the island but also how Taiwanese people conceptualized the land they lived on, as a whole and complete nation unto itself. This book also discusses the reasons why this revolution remains unfinished and contingent, as Beijing’s power and the disproportionate leverage that large states exercise within the international system block off the “normal” endpoint of a revolution: an open declaration of statehood and welcome into the global community.
Russia and the Changing Character of Conflict by Tracey German is in the Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series (General Editor: Thomas G. Mahnken; Founding Editor: Geoffrey R.H. Burn)
PRAISE FOR THE BOOK:
“Meticulously researched and compellingly argued, Tracey German’s book could not be more timely and relevant given Russia’s war against Ukraine. Examining the roots of the Russian understanding of the changing character of war, and how and why Moscow uses its armed forces, it is essential reading for those seeking to interpret Russia’s military strategy today. Importantly, German analyzes how the Russian military incorporates foresight into strategy, offering us tools to reflect on what to expect as we look ahead.” —Andrew Monaghan, Senior Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute, and author of Dealing with the Russians
“Mirror-imaging and fixating on singular aspects, such as the notorious ‘Gerasimov doctrine’, have resulted in a one-sided Western view of contemporary Russian strategic thought. A lot of the existing work on Russian military thought is far too limited and focused on individual aspects. In this meticulously researched and clearly written book, German applies her context- based regional knowledge to tease out the nuances in Russian visions of future war in all their complexities. Her systematic examination of the use of private military companies, proxy forces and other important contemporary issues will have broad appeal to various audiences. Russia and the Changing Character of Conflict is essential reading to gain a better understanding of how the Kremlin has responded to the changing character of conflict and why it proceeded as it did during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.” —Bettina Renz, Professor of International Security, School of Politics & IR, University of Nottingham
“This timely examination of Russian views on the changing character of war should be required reading for analysts of the Russian military and anyone interested in Russia’s use of military force to advance its national interests. The final chapter, which uses the war in Ukraine to examine the gap between theory and practice in Russian military doctrine, is especially relevant. Dr. Tracey German has produced an excellent piece of scholarship that advances our understanding of the West’s most acute security threat.” —Robert E. Hamilton, Research Professor of Eurasian Studies, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College
“As Russia’s war against Ukraine unfolds, Tracey German’s book offers a timely and sharp contribution to the debate, clearly explaining how and why Russia wages war in Ukraine and beyond. Going through both theory and practice, German navigates the intricacies of Moscow’s understanding of the changing character of war and contemporary debates in Russian military thought. Russia and the Changing Character of Conflict offers valuable insights for Western policymakers, especially as it explores the future of the Russian military as well as the impact of technology on modern warfare.” —Mathieu Boulègue, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Defense and Security, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
About the author:
Tracey German is Professor of Conflict and Security in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London. Her previous publications include Russia’s Chechen War, Georgia’s Foreign Policy: Diplomacy, Strategy and Regional Power in the Caucasus, Good Neighbours or Distant Relatives? Regional Cooperation in the South Caucasus, and Securing Europe: Western Interventions in search of a New Security Community. She has published in a range of journals, including International Affairs, Contemporary Security Policy, Europe-Asia Studies, and Comparative Strategy.