Understanding Venezuela 2026 through the Lens of Coercive Diplomacy
The dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, has reignited urgent debates about the tools the United States uses to exert influence abroad. While Richard Outzen’s US Coercive Diplomacy and the Global Order was published in April 2025 before these developments, its strategic analysis of U.S. coercive diplomacy from 1991 to 2020 provides a vital framework for understanding the risks and stakes of America’s latest intervention.
What is coercive diplomacy, and why does it often fail?
Outzen defines coercive diplomacy as the use of military threats, economic pressure, and diplomatic isolation to influence another state’s behavior without full-scale war. Drawing on multiple case studies—including Iraq, Georgia, Libya, and Venezuela—he reveals that coercion frequently fails when objectives are vague, tools are misaligned, or third-party dynamics are ignored.
Why did U.S. efforts to remove Maduro from power between 2014 and 2020 fail?
Between 2014 and 2020, both the Obama and Trump administrations tried to force Nicolás Maduro from power through escalating sanctions and diplomatic support for opposition leader Juan Guaidó. But as one U.S. ambassador interviewed by Outzen put it:
“there were thoughts Maduro’s support would crumble when 50 countries recognized the opposition government. Stakes were very high for Maduro. Yet Maduro is now stronger than he was when we started sanctions.”
Outzen’s in-depth analysis shows how assumptions about internal collapse, lack of planning, and failure to anticipate external support (from Russia, China, and Iran) contributed to the campaign’s failure.
How should policymakers evaluate the risks of U.S. military intervention in the Western Hemisphere?
Outzen’s book provides a framework that offers critical guidance and highlights recurring problems identified by practitioners themselves: unclear endgames, poor interagency coordination, and sanctions that, according to one senior military officer, “eventually gain a life of their own.” These insights are highly relevant to the unfolding Venezuela crisis and challenge assumptions that tactical superiority guarantees political outcomes.
What does the Venezuela case reveal about U.S. strategy in Latin America?
Outzen shows that while coercive diplomacy had some tactical wins in the region, it often led to long-term mistrust, hedging, and anti-U.S. alignment. His regional analysis of ALBA, OAS, and extra-regional actors like China and Russia underscores how coercive campaigns can backfire, undermining U.S. strategic influence over time.
What kinds of strategic conversations can this book inform?
For those tasked with understanding or responding to the 2026 Venezuela crisis—from policy analysts and foreign affairs professionals to academic researchers—US Coercive Diplomacy and the Global Order offers more than historical analysis. It provides a structured way to evaluate the logic, limitations, and long-term consequences of America’s most consequential strategic choices.
Whether used to inform foreign policy debates, support classroom discussion in graduate-level courses, or guide strategic assessments, the clarity, insight, and real-world grounding in Richard Outzen’s book make it a valuable resource.
Praise for US Coercive Diplomacy and the Global Order
“Grand strategy isn’t for amateurs. Fortunately, as Rich Outzen demonstrates in his new book, he’s a professional—a soldier, diplomat, and scholar who directly participated in the turbulent three decades of foreign policy he analyses. Historians will long study that period as an example of nearly unlimited power misapplied, undermining a global order which the US thought it had secured in perpetuity. Dr. Outzen’s scholarly analysis shows how we went wrong and where assumptions led the nation astray.” —Ambassador James Jeffrey (ret.)
”Do coercive sanctions work as an instrument of US policy? Moreover, when they fail, do they increase or hurt America’s credibility and standing globally? Outzen does a terrific job answering these questions, and others, in this book, a meticulously researched, deeply analytical, and yet, flowing opus magnum. In the age of great power competition, Outzen’s book is a must-read for anyone—from graduate students studying foreign policy to practitioners implementing it—interested in setting a future course for US foreign policy.” —Dr. Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute
”This excellent work examines American coercive diplomacy in the post-Cold War era. The record is largely one of failure, as the US has been unable to effectively coordinate such efforts over time. Despite vast material capabilities, Washington lacks relevant core competencies, and in their absence, optimism isn’t the solution – it’s the problem. Outzen provides rigorous argumentation and method in this study of foreign policy outcomes. It’s also rich with policy implications supporting coercive diplomacy that is more hard-nosed, effective, modest, and realistic.” —Dr. Colin Dueck, George Mason University
“A dangerous era of great power competition is again upon us. Yet too few are asking the hardest questions, including: How—after decades of unprecedented American economic and military power—have we once again found ourselves here? With his unique background in both military and diplomatic spheres, Outzen’s examination of these cases goes beyond an arms-length investigation to offer a hands-on analysis of American influence and (in)competency. This book is a must-read.” —The Honorable Mary Beth Long, former Assistant Secretary of Defense
About the Book
Title: US Coercive Diplomacy and the Global Order: A Critical Analysis of Post–Cold War Strategies
Author: Richard Outzen
Publisher: Cambria Press
Publication Date: April 2025
Pages: 286 pp.
Series: Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series
ISBN: 9781638573302 (hardcover); 9781638573487 (paperback)
Available in hardcover, paperback, and e-book
Bulk discounts available for academic and policy institutions
About the Author
Richard Outzen is a geopolitical analyst and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. A retired colonel who served 30 years in the US Army, Dr. Outzen served on tours in Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, Israel, and Germany. He has taught at the National Defense University and has served as policy advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the State Department’s Policy Planning Office. He has researched and published extensively on policy and strategy, primarily on the greater Middle East and Central Asia.